Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
